2024 PGA Championship picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions from golf model

Rory McIlroy is heating up just in time to return to Valhalla Golf Club for the 2024 PGA Championship, which tees off Thursday. At the Wells Fargo Championship last week, McIlroy came from behind to beat Xander Schauffele by five shots and win his second consecutive event of the season. He now heads to the course in Louisville, Kentucky where he won his last major back in 2014. His current form suggests McIlroy could end that drought this week, however, and he is 6-1 in the current 2024 PGA Championship odds. The only golfer in the 2024 PGA Championship field with shorter odds is world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is 3-1 after winning four of his last five events including the Masters.

Will McIlroy get the best of Scheffler and break the decade-long curse? Before locking in any 2024 PGA Championship picks of your own, entering PGA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, or finalizing PGA Championship props and PGA Championship Pick Six entries, be sure to see the 2024 PGA Championship golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 11 majors entering the weekend and hit the Masters three straight years. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now with the PGA Championship 2024 field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 PGA Championship predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka, a three-time PGA champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Koepka has five major tournament wins on his resume and a reputation for elevating his level of play in big events. However, his last two major starts haven’t gone well as he was 45th at the Masters, which followed a 64th-place finish at last year’s Open Championship. He’s failed to shoot par in each of his last seven rounds at major tournaments.

After notching three tournament wins in 2023, including last year’s PGA Championship, it has been tough sledding for Koepka in 2024. He has no victories, or even top-fives, and across his six starts, he has three times as many finishes outside the top 25 (three) as he has inside the top 10 (one). He played Valhalla at the 2014 PGA Championship and finished in a tie for 15th place, but that placement ranks just eighth out of his 11 career PGA Championship starts. See who else to fade here.

Another surprise: Will Zalatoris, a 40-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. A back injury sidelined the 27-year-old for the majority of 2023 and a flare-up at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson this year caused him to withdraw from the tournament. However, the San Francisco native has been cleared to play at Valhalla Golf Club this week and offers upside.

Zalatoris has tallied three top-10 finishes in his return this season, including a runner-up finish at the Genesis Invitational and a ninth-place performance at the Masters. He ranks 16th across the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (70.10%), which should help him navigate the difficult driving areas at Valhalla. See who else to back here.

How to make 2024 PGA Championship picks

The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the PGA Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.

2024 PGA Championship odds, field

Get full 2024 PGA Championship picks, best bets, and predictions here

Scottie Scheffler +300
Rory McIlroy +600
Brooks Koepka +1000
Xander Schauffele +1200
Ludvig Aberg +1200
Jon Rahm +1400
Joaquin Niemann +2500
Collin Morikawa +2500
Bryson DeChambeau +2500
Wyndham Clark +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2800
Cameron Smith +3300
Max Homa +3300
Viktor Hovland +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Will Zalatoris +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4500
Dustin Johnson +4500
Cameron Young +5000
Jason Day +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
Jordan Spieth +5500
Tony Finau +5500
Patrick Reed +6000
Byeong Hun An +6000
Sam Burns +6000
Shane Lowry +6000
Tom Kim +6000
Sungjae Im +6500
Dean Burmester +6500
Sahith Theegala +6500
Abraham Ancer +7000
Min Woo Lee +7500
Brian Harman +7500
Talor Gooch +8000
Keegan Bradley +8500
Akshay Bhatia +8500
Russell Henley +8500
Adam Scott +8500
Sepp Straka +8500
Si Woo Kim +9000
Tiger Woods +12500
David Puig +12500
Corey Conners +12500
Rickie Fowler +12500
Stephan Jaeger +12500
Denny McCarthy +12500
Phil Mickelson +12500
Jake Knapp +12500
Chris Kirk +12500
Billy Horschel +12500
Sergio Garcia +12500
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Adrian Meronk +12500
Austin Eckroat +15000
Mackenzie Hughes +15000
Alex Noren +15000
Harris English +15000
Matthieu Pavon +15000
Ryan Fox +15000
Adrian Otaegui +15000
Justin Rose +17500
Adam Schenk +17500
Keith Mitchell +17500
Myth Pereira +17500
Kurt Kitayama +17500
Daniel Berger +17500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +17500
Emiliano Grillo +17500
Lucas Herbert +17500
Tom Hoge +17500
Victor Perez +17500
Erik Van Rooyen +17500
Lucas Glover +17500
Nicolai Hojgaard +20000
Eric Cole +20000
Jordan Smith +20000
Thomas Pieters +20000
J.T. Poston +20000
Thomas Detry +22500
Ryan Van Velzen +22500
Cam Davis +22500
Triston Lawrence +22500
Beau Hossler +22500
Aaron Rai +22500
Ben Griffin +22500
Nick Taylor +22500
Alex Smalley +22500
Brendon Todd +25000
Maverick McNealy +25000
Luke List +25000
Nick Dunlap +25000
Davis Riley +25000
Adam Hadwin +25000
Marc Leishman +25000
Seamus Power +25000
Ryo Hisatsune +27500
Matt Wallace +27500
Andrew Putnam +27500
Andy Ogletree +27500
Patrick Rodgers +30000
Doug Pin +30000
Taylor Moore +30000
Sebastian Soderberg +30000
Adam Svensson +30000
Rasmus Hojgaard +30000
Robert MacIntyre +30000
Gary Woodland +30000
Lee Hodges +30000
Ben Kohles +30000
K.H. Lee +30000
Camillo Villegas +35000
Alejandro Tosti +35000
Taylor Montgomery +35000
Vincent Norrman +35000
Jesper Svensson +35000
Widing Team +35000
Charley Hoffman +40000
Mark Hubbard +40000
Keita Nakajima +40000
Zac Blair +50000
Francisco Molinari +50000
Joel Dahmen +50000
Peter Malnati +50000
Sam Valimaki +50000
Takumi Kanaya +50000
Grayson Murray +50000
Alexander Bjork +50000
Martin Kaymer +75000
Kazuma Kobori +75000
Brice Garnett +75000
Michael Block +75000
Padraig Harrington +75000
Luke Donald +75000
Jimmy Walker +75000
YE Yang +100000
Jason Dufner +100000
John Daly +150000
Wyatt Worthington IV +150000
Tyler Collet +200000
Matt Dobyn's +200000
Josh Speight +200000
Braden Shattuk +200000
Brad Marek +200000
Tracy Phillips +200000
Evan Bowser +200000
Josh Bevell +200000
Larkin Gross +200000
Rich trees +200000
Zac Oakley +200000
Jeremy Wells +200000
Preston Cole +200000
John Somers +200000
Ben Polland +200000
Kyle Mendoza +200000
Jared Jones +200000
Shaun Micheel +200000
Jeff Kellen +200000
Jesse Mueller +200000
Andy Svoboda +200000

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