2024 PGA Championship picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win from

With the PGA Championship returning to Valhalla for the first time in a decade, the key question everyone’s asking is the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win this 106th playing of one of the nation’s most notable tournaments? With an extraordinary field featuring the best professionals and many of the top amateurs in the world, the second major championship of 2024 should be an epic ride from Thursday’s first round through the awarding of the Wanamaker Trophy early Sunday evening.

There is a three-headed monster atop the 2024 PGA Championship field as Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy have all won the last two tournaments in which they started. Scheffler’s run has been even more impressive — winning four of his last five starts — but he’s also been off for nearly a month while tending to personal matters, including the birth of his first child. Koepka, the reigning PGA champion, has dominated LIV Golf and rekindled his top-level game.

McIlroy got his mind right alongside Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic and followed by taking advantage of his comfort at Quail Hollow to win last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. Now, he visits the site and event at which he won his last major 10 years ago hoping some more course and tournament familiarity will bring him back to the winner’s circle.

There are plenty of golfers behind them who will surely be in contention, including wunderkind Ludvig Åberg, Bryson DeChambeau, reigning U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark and John Rahm — just to name a few. And then there’s the duo of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Woods has not played a complete weekend at the PGA Championship since 2020, while Mickelson won the whole shebang the following season.

So, what is going to happen at Valhalla this week? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win — and what will happen — at the most prestigious golf tournament in the world.

Watch the final two rounds of the 2024 PGA Championship live on Saturday and Sunday from 1-7 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+.

2024 PGA Championship expert picks, predictions

Kyle Porter, senior golf writer

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (4-1): I’m just going to keep picking Scottie until he loses, which he hasn’t done much over the last few months. Since March 1, Scheffler has lost to one golfer: Stephan Jaegar at the Houston Open. That’s it. It probably hurts him a little bit that this is less of a strategy golf course and more of an execution golf course, but he’s been firing on all cylinders in both of those areas for a long time now.

Sleeper — Cameron Young (55-1): I’m looking for somebody who drives the heck out of the ball. Check. Somebody who has had success at past PGA Championships. Check. Somebody who plays well at major championships in general. Check. Somebody who has had some success so far this season. Check. And somebody who is currently undervalued. Check. There is not a world in which Young should be 55-1 on this course, especially after his quiet T9 at the Masters and how well he drives the ball on a course that demands it.

Top 10 lock — Rory McIlroy: He’s playing such good golf right now, and more importantly, he’s hitting driver as well as he’s ever hit it going into a course where that will be a great benefit. His lack of wins in majors over the last few years have seemingly been the result of mental hurdles rather than physical ones, and there aren’t as many mental hurdles when it comes to finishing in the top 10. He has top 10s at the PGA in each of the last two years without his best stuff.

Star who definitely won’t win — Xander Schauffele: I don’t know that Schauffele qualifies as a star, though I feel like if you’re in the top five in the world, you sort of deserve that designation. But I definitely don’t believe he will win. He has struggled to close out major championships (heck, tournaments in general) and enters this one having been run over by McIlroy at the end of last week’s Wells Fargo Championship.

Scottie Scheffler vs. Brooks Koepka vs. Rory McIlroy: Obviously, picking Scheffler to win, I have him out in front. I’m actually not super high on Koepka this week. He thrives in strategy contests because he’s so good at keeping his head when those around him are losing theirs. Still, I think he’ll finish in the top 15, which means all three of these guys will have good weeks, though they will finish with Scheffler on top, McIlroy next and Koepka third.

Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson: I have both missing the cut but Mickelson coming closer than Woods. Lefty is not playing good golf, and Tiger is not playing golf at all. It’s one thing for Tiger to make the cut at a strategy golf course like Augusta National where he can think his way around. It’s quite another at a place like Valhalla where he’ll have to hit it forever and slog his way around a big ballpark.

Surprise prediction — Nail-biter finish: I don’t know that this is a huge surprise, but given how many blowouts we’ve had at majors recently (the last two have been over before the back nine on Sunday), it might be a shock to see this leaderboard rival the 2021 U.S. Open in terms of how packed it is late in the week. Huge names, great players and eventually Scheffler will emerge, but not before he gets all kinds of contention from guys like McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Wyndham Clark.

Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 273 (-15)
Winner’s Sunday score: 68 (-4)


Patrick McDonald, golf writer

Winner — Bryson DeChambeau (28-1): I deviated from my preseason Masters pick (Scheffler) like a fool, so I will not be making that mistake again. When I look at Valhalla, I see a golf course which asks players to hit it long and straight off the tee — a golf course that will provide some relief around the green due to the heavy rough. This should play right into the hands of DeChambeau, who was the first-round leader at Oak Hill last year and the Masters just last month. He’s in great form, among the best drivers in the game and someone who has won on a Jack Nicklaus design before.

Sleeper — Will Zalatoris (75-1): The form isn’t great, but this guy just finished top 10 at the Masters. In fact, Zalatoris has finished inside the top 10 seven times across his 10 major appearances as a professional. Three of those doubled as runners-up finishes, including his playoff loss at this championship just two years ago. The wiry right hander knows how to play major golf. Among the leaders in terms of proximity from 175 to 225 yards, he could be a steal at this price.

Top 10 lock — Scottie Scheffler: Boring, I know. Even with the month layoff due to the arrival of baby Scheffler, the world No. 1 should pick up right where he left off. A winner in four of his last five tournaments, Scheffler has widened the gap between himself and the rest of the world making a the grand slam a real conversation. I doubt there will be competitive rust, but I’ll play it conservatively with a top-10 finish, which he has accomplished in 10 of his last 15 major appearances, including last year at Oak Hill where he finished runner-up after holding the 36-hole lead.

Star who definitely won’t win — Cameron Smith: This one is tough, but I hate the course fit for Smith despite his coming in with a string of good form. He’s not long off the tee, he’s not straight off the tee, and this golf course mitigates his short-game advantage ever so slightly. The Australian has been good in majors over the last handful of years (including at Oak Hill last year in a bit of a surprise), but I could see him struggle at Valhalla. I might be selling this week, but I’ll be buying next month at Pinehurst No. 2.

Scottie Scheffler vs. Brooks Koepka vs. Rory McIlroy: There’s a chance they finish 2-3-4 right behind DeChambeau, of course. Scheffler’s floor is just so high at the moment that it’s difficult to suggest he will lose to anyone, while Koepka has made the PGA Championship his major over the last half decade or so — he’s had a chance to win in all of them since 2018 if you take away 2022 when he was injured. McIlroy is in top form as well with two wins, andhe  is the second-best player in the world. Koepka makes you look like an idiot if you side against him in majors, but I think he finishes last among this group with Scheffler finding a podium and McIlroy not far behind that.

Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson: After some mental gymnastics, I’ve decided to roll with the Big Cat. Since the start of 2022, Woods has actually made five of seven cuts, including his last PGA Championship at Southern Hills. I think he’s capable of playing his way into the weekend again, and by that time, I am expecting the drop in form (which will probably happen) not to matter as Mickelson’s waywardness off the tee will send him packing early.

Surprise prediction — Jordan Spieth gets into contention at some point: It could happen early in the first round or it could happen late on Sunday, but Spieth will pop his name onto the first page of the leaderboard this week. He is driving the golf ball perhaps as well as ever, which will be crucial for his chances. The rest of his game is in a state of disarray, and the wrist injury continues to nag him, but this is Spieth we’re talking about. He’s shown he is capable of anything. Anything.

Lowest round: 65 (-6)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner’s Sunday score: 68 (-3)

Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 11 golf majorsincluding the last three Masters.

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