2024 PGA Championship odds, field: Surprising PGA picks from proven golf model

The last eight editions of the PGA Championship have been decided by two or fewer strokes, with two golfers combining to win five of those tournaments. Brooks Koepka is a three-time winner and the defending champion, while Justin Thomas has won twice since 2017. Both are coming off disappointing results at the Masters, but they’ll enter the PGA Championship 2024 on Thursday, May 16 with high levels of confidence. No golfer in the world is as confident as Scottie Scheffler, who is coming off his second Masters win and was runner-up in last year’s PGA Championship. Scheffler is the 3-1 favorite in the 2024 PGA Championship field, making him the only golfer with single-digit 2024 PGA Championship odds.

Jon Rahm finished 48th and 50th in his last two starts in the PGA Championship but is at 10-1, while Koepka and Rory McIlroy are 12-1. Before locking in any 2024 PGA Championship picks of your own, entering PGA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, or finalizing PGA Championship props and PGA Championship Pick Six entries, be sure to see the 2024 PGA Championship golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine through a CBS Sports account.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 11 majors entering the weekend and hit the Masters three straight years. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now with the PGA Championship 2024 field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Join SportsLine now through a CBS Sports account to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 PGA Championship predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka, a three-time PGA champion and one of the favorites, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Koepka has five major tournament wins on his resume and a reputation for elevating his level of play in big events. However, his last two major starts haven’t gone well as he was 45th at the Masters, which followed a 64th-place finish at last year’s Open Championship. He’s failed to shoot par in each of his last seven rounds at major tournaments.

After notching three tournament wins in 2023, including last year’s PGA Championship, it has been tough sledding for Koepka in 2024. He has no victories, or even top-fives, and across his six starts, he has three times as many finishes outside the top 25 (three) as he has inside the top 10 (one). He played Valhalla at the 2014 PGA Championship and finished in a tie for 15th place, but that placement ranks just eighth out of his 11 career PGA Championship starts.

Another surprise: Bryson DeChambeau, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. DeChambeau was seen as one of the top young players in the game after winning the 2020 U.S. Open, joining Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as the only three players to win that major, U.S. Amateur and an NCAA Individual Championship. His game would take a dip over the next few years, but it appears the trajectory is on the rise again. He finished fourth in last year’s PGA Championship, his second fourth-place finish over his last three starts at the major.

Overall, DeChambeau has three top-25s over his last four major appearances and three top-10s over his last six major starts. He has been just as competitive in worldwide starts in 2024, as he had a streak of four straight top-10s that included a sixth place at the Masters. DeChambeau has taken a liking to this tournament, as his two career top-fives at the PGA Championship are twice as many as all other majors combined. See who else to pick by joining SportsLine here through a CBS Sports account.

How to make 2024 PGA Championship picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds longer than 20-1 to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks by joining SportsLine here through a CBS Sports account.

Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the PGA Championship 2024 odds below and then join SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard through a CBS Sports account, all from the model that’s nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.

2024 PGA Championship odds, field

Get full 2024 PGA Championship picks, best bets, and predictions by joining SportsLine here.

Scottie Scheffler 3-1
Jon Rahm 10-1
Rory McIlroy 12-1
Ludvig Aberg 12-1
Brooks Koepka 12-1
Wyndham Clark 16-1
Xander Schauffele 18-1
Joaquin Niemann 22-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Viktor Hovland 25-1
Cameron Smith 25-1
Bryson DeChambeau 28-1
Max Homa 28-1
Hideki Matsuyama 30-1
Jordan Spieth 33-1
Justin Thomas 33-1
Cameron Young 35-1
Tony Finau 35-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 35-1
Tommy Fleetwood 40-1
Tom Kim 40-1
Dustin Johnson 40-1
Tyrrell Hatton 45-1
Min Woo Lee 50-1
Sam Burns 50-1
Jason Day 50-1
Shane Lowry 50-1
Brian Harman 60-1
Sungjae Im 60-1
Patrick Reed 65-1
Abraham Ancer 65-1
Russell Henley 65-1
Sahith Theegala 65-1
Louis Oosthuizen 75-1
Corey Conners 75-1
Keegan Bradley 75-1
Rickie Fowler 80-1
Adam Scott 80-1
Talor Gooch 90-1
Harris English 100-1
Justin Rose 100-1
Si Woo Kim 100-1
Gary Woodland 100-1
Kurt Kitayama 100-1
Daniel Berger 100-1
Sepp Straka 100-1
Tiger Woods 125-1
Keith Mitchell 125-1
Phil Mickelson 125-1
J.T. Poston 125-1
Sergio Garcia 125-1
Myth Pereira 150-1
Billy Horschel 150-1
Eric Cole 150-1
Thomas Pieters 150-1
Ryan Fox 175-1
Seamus Power 175-1
Mackenzie Hughes 175-1
Denny McCarthy 175-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 175-1
Victor Perez 175-1
Marc Leishman 175-1
Davis Riley 200-1
Adam Hadwin 200-1
Harold Varner III 200-1
Jason Kokrak 200-1
Robert MacIntyre 250-1
Francisco Molinari 250-1
Joel Dahmen 250-1
Aaron Wise 250-1
Steve Stricker 350-1
Michael Block 500-1

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